No. It comes from OLD American history. In times of war, a man's wife, or lover would tie a yellow ribbon around a tree to symbolize the hope for their safe return from war.
It's not that old. It comes from a song, "Tie a Yellow Ribbon Round the Old Oak Tree." And it wasn't a soldier who had gone to war; it was a criminal who had spent three years in jail. She was to tie a yellow ribbon if she still wanted him. The song says, "If I don't see a ribbon round the old oak tree, I'll stay on the bus, forget about us, put the blame on me." She's to put the blame on him because it was his crime that got him sent away for three years, and so it'll be his fault if she doesn't want him back.
Comparing our soldiers to ex-convicts being released from prison is, I think, an irony lost on almost everyone...