Brasky,
Today I was looking at TNA at about 10:40 and saw 10-day and 20-day charts where the MACD indicators looked favorable. I thought I should look again if and when it dropped from it's current level around $30.05 to $29.80 and set an alert. I then got involved in a discussion and by the time I came back and looked, it has risen to a high of $31.27 after hitting a low of... wait for it... $29.81!! Off by a penny, so no alert triggered. Otherwise, I believe I would have taken a look, seen it start to trend up, and bought at about $29.85- 29.90. Damn the luck.
Anyway, now it is off its intraday high. Obviously, in hindsight my assessment was correct when comparing results, but that doesn't mean my technical analysis was correct necessarily. I'm wondering if you might have pulled the trigger at the point where I set an alert, i.e. at $30.05 with the short and long moving averages converging under the line... the red indicator having reached a positive slope back toward the line. (I'm not sure what to call the indicator that is a red and green filled line above and below the "neutral" line.)
Oh, and yes, I do remember your advice to track the underlying index instead of the ETF. 
Arite, doing a q/d TNA looky-loo, it looks right to me.
Pull the 20-day with 1-hour candles, notice the pattern. Its pretty predictable. I'm not using the Index, this is rough-hand.
The reason you always keep the Index in mind is a frame of reference, constant play of one 3x will falter over time and ultimately not return to the same price. TNA will eventually succumb to decay, so if you play it much and the market patterns around in a trough for the next several months, which I believe it will (S+P 800 to 900, this summer it could do that) so you want to get used to that.
With that patterning, you can't expect to know 30 is a good low and 37 is a good high. Eventually 25 may be a good low, 31 could be a good high. I'm really trying to kick this into the head of 3x players, its very important to understand how this decay works, you can get burnt if you focus on the dollar value.
You could go off to play in the Energy Bull for a month, for example, and lose your edge in the TNA. Then you come back, holyfucks! TNA is 29! BUY! Except 29 is high, and you fucked up. Lose big wampum, frownyface. I don't think you would do that, because you actually have a good grasp of the 3x by now. But when I write, other people read, and I need to reinforce this or I would be dispensing advice irresponsibly. Cool? Cool.
Anyway, observe 20day chart. Dig the pattern.
Slide pic thataway>>>
Green, red, green, red. See that pattern? I'd have a BUY target in that pattern around $30. You were right.
The Free Talk Live BBS
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