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Diogenes The Cynic

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The Prisoners Dilemma
« on: May 22, 2012, 10:52:56 PM »

I'm pretty sure you all already agree that taking a plea deal always sucks compared to fighting it out in court.

But I want to prove it. I want to figure out a way, using game theory to see if its in the interest of the accused to either

-always plea
-always take it to court
-sometimes plea,and sometimes take it to court.

What are your thoughts?
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I am looking for an honest man. -Diogenes The Cynic

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Wormwrath

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Re: The Prisoners Dilemma
« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2012, 02:18:40 AM »

"DON'T TAKE THE PLEA DEAL" is probably of little use except as a protest of the current system. As a means of burdening it so heavily as to cause a breakdown, it's unlikely to succeed. Only a gutsy few actually refuse the deal, and those few get slaughtered. The state is especially brutal in such cases and thinks nothing of caging people for months, even years for harmless, but defiant, conduct.

As a protest, maybe "DON'T TAKE THE PLEA DEAL" has some political or inspirational value. But individually, the idea is crazy unless the defendant thinks he can beat the charge.

In a truly free & fair system, voluntary settlement of grievances would be the norm. In a free state the costs of crime would be borne by the criminal. If guilty, he would pay all the costs of his crime, including investigation, capture, trial, and restitution, perhaps forced restitution.

The burglar who is discovered will get off far more cheaply if he quickly admits guilt and returns the goods. If he is going to be convicted anyway, he will want to take the best deal he can get, as fast as he can get it. If he has a brain, he will TAKE THE PLEA DEAL.
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alaric89

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Re: The Prisoners Dilemma
« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2012, 02:59:26 AM »

I am thinking of printing out "Don't Get Arrested" and "Try To Get On Juries" literature, and passing those out beside the "don't take the plea deal" goons. People testing the waters of how evil the state can be confuse me.*

* Answer: Pretty fucking evil without empathy.

freeAgent

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Re: The Prisoners Dilemma
« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2012, 08:34:45 AM »

I'm pretty sure you all already agree that taking a plea deal always sucks compared to fighting it out in court.

But I want to prove it. I want to figure out a way, using game theory to see if its in the interest of the accused to either

-always plea
-always take it to court
-sometimes plea,and sometimes take it to court.

What are your thoughts?

You would have to know the probabilities of each outcome as well as the consequences associated with them to really calculate anything in a mathematical sense, but you can't know those in advance.  Taking a plea deal certainly makes sense individually for a lot of people, but if you derive satisfaction from making them try you in court, it changes the calculation.  I think the activism part is more of a freeloader issue than prisoner's dilemma.
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Level 20 Anklebiter

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Re: The Prisoners Dilemma
« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2012, 04:39:52 PM »

Game Theory is bullshit. Just sayin'. :)
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SeanD

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Re: The Prisoners Dilemma
« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2012, 10:05:54 PM »

For most "Don't take a plea" will get them bent over the table because you piss off the Persecutor by making them actually fucking work and go to court.  This has been proven by cases discussed on FTL where people tried to fight a BS arrest.  Only time I see it as effective is when you have proof of lying on the side of the cops or if it is a mass arrest where there will be hundreds of people to try if they all refuse the plea.
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