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Poll

Will he do it?  CAN he do it?  

HE WILL DO IT!
HE WILL FAIL MIGHTILY!
HE'S A DICK, AND I HOPE HE FUCKS IT UP.
I WISH I HAD A PLAN!

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Author Topic: The Plan Thread  (Read 58806 times)

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Bill Brasky

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #90 on: April 05, 2009, 07:32:58 PM »

Any thoughts about SPDR GLD vs. getting bars-in-a-vault?

No difference to me, right now.  I'm not chicken-little at this moment in time.  However, since gold is falling, you'd be better off getting a gold bear.  (short it with an inverse fund)

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:GLL

Do the research, set your stops, etc. 

Eventually, when the world is in a pickle, of course I will favor things you can hold in your hand.  In the meanwhile, since this is reality, and the world will probably not collapse tomorrow or the next day, use the ETF's.  Build some wealth as it slides, then roll it over when it begins to bottom or shows signs of a reverse. 

You could do very well with some minor, serious positioning.  Its not hard, especially if you go with the funds that aren't leveraged.  They're very predictable in the medium-range, we're in the Bull stage for the next while.  When it turns, just sell the fucker.  Ride out the little hops and dips, and watch the news like you've always done. 
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sillyperson

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #91 on: April 05, 2009, 09:44:46 PM »

As for ETFs, I've been watching DBP
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:DBP

I do see a BIG difference between investing in a basket of companies that mine gold, versus... well, gold. That's my current puzzle. I'm figgering on buying GLD or DBP on the dips, then selling and buying bullion bars.

As for "chicken little", at that point I'm looking at gold in my own possession (ie, in a safe deposit box where I have the key & the bank doesn't know what's in the box) versus gold assigned to me in somebody else's vault. But on that score I agree, not today, not next month, not next year. Maybe in 5 years tho...

blackie

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #92 on: April 05, 2009, 09:56:02 PM »

Maybe in 5 years tho...
The right time to buy would have been 5 years ago.
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Bill Brasky

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #93 on: April 05, 2009, 11:18:11 PM »

As for ETFs, I've been watching DBP
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:DBP

I do see a BIG difference between investing in a basket of companies that mine gold, versus... well, gold. That's my current puzzle. I'm figgering on buying GLD or DBP on the dips, then selling and buying bullion bars.

As for "chicken little", at that point I'm looking at gold in my own possession (ie, in a safe deposit box where I have the key & the bank doesn't know what's in the box) versus gold assigned to me in somebody else's vault. But on that score I agree, not today, not next month, not next year. Maybe in 5 years tho...



Yeah.  BTW, I'm not saying chicken little to be insulting.  I just don't have that vibe right now. 

I think safe depository boxes would be a bad idea when the shit hits the fan.  A better idea would be some creative masonry work. 
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sillyperson

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #94 on: April 06, 2009, 09:11:00 AM »

I think safe depository boxes would be a bad idea when the shit hits the fan.  A better idea would be some creative masonry work. 
I don't think it's going to hit THAT bad... and if I start to get that vibe, I go to the bank and get my, um.... baby pictures, yeah, from the safe deposit box.
First is owning the stuff. THEN comes "in what form", and that's what I'm trying to figure out in the next 2-3 days -- ETF, SPDR GLD, golden eagles, maple leafs, etc.

The real honest question I'm trying to figger is ETF-paper, vs physical metal.

Bill Brasky

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #95 on: April 06, 2009, 11:02:11 AM »

I think safe depository boxes would be a bad idea when the shit hits the fan.  A better idea would be some creative masonry work. 
I don't think it's going to hit THAT bad... and if I start to get that vibe, I go to the bank and get my, um.... baby pictures, yeah, from the safe deposit box.
First is owning the stuff. THEN comes "in what form", and that's what I'm trying to figure out in the next 2-3 days -- ETF, SPDR GLD, golden eagles, maple leafs, etc.

The real honest question I'm trying to figger is ETF-paper, vs physical metal.

I think you have more flexibility and options with the ETF's.  You don't have to day-trade them, but you can buy low and sell high over a period of time, increasing your position with house money. 

If you put a dollar into physical metals, your dollar is in it, and it flexes to the market price.  If you put your dollar into ETF's, you can jump out on the highs, and re-enter on the lows, which is the trading-for-dummies theory.  Over time, your dollar may be worth two dollars by pattern trading, even if gold is in the same exact position as when you started.  Thus, you'd own two ounces, as opposed to the one ounce you purchased at the current price. 

Eventually, when you buy the physical metal, I'd buy 1/10 rounds.  Doesn't really matter which kind. 

I'm pretty sure, even though I haven't honestly looked into it, you can go through the online brokers and buy like a piggy-bank with an online account.  Throw a hundred bucks here, a hundred bucks there, at the low market prices, and they credit it to your holding account.  When you've built up a nice position, you can hit the "gimme" button and they mail you your physical gold.  Its good for people who are normal folk, to build a position.  Most can't part with $900 in one shot and stick it in their sock drawer for doomsday.   

Thats what I'd do.  When I'm better off, thats the angle I'm gonna investigate unless I find a better one. 
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sillyperson

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #96 on: April 06, 2009, 11:04:57 AM »

Thanks Brasky. You're a voice of reason I bounce ideas against.
It's not what I'm going with, due to the particularities of my situation, but it's close.

I'll post here once everything's a done deal.

Bill Brasky

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #97 on: April 06, 2009, 11:42:47 AM »


Good luck. 

I think the important part here, regardless of the specific actions, is to get people to think of their options.  There are a lot of creative solutions out there and a lot of opportunities.  What infuriates me is people buying into the fear factor and buying blindly.  Gold fever is very real here, in this forum.  People think its bulletproof, and they drink the koolaid.  They're out seeking coins in pawn shops, and when it all shakes out, a little here and a little there, they're gonna pay $2000 an ounce.  How is that helpful to people who want to position themselves for a little security in an emergency?  Its damaging. 
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anarchir

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #98 on: April 09, 2009, 01:53:13 AM »

My plan:

Work at my current job (line cook) full time over the summer. Then at the end of the summer, move, recoup, plan.

Possibilities for moving:

Sublet at GF's Fathers' House
  • Pros: 150/month rent ( :shock: : :D), nice place/big room, guy is an insomniac and cool as shit, possibilities of free food, 15 minutes from current job
  • Cons: 1 hour away from friends and 2 from GF, only 15 min away from crazy insane family

Move to town used to attend college at.
  • Pros: with friends, can live with friends, will get to party more, 1.5 hours away from family
  • Cons: possible expensive rent, need to find new job (tough), possible other foolish expenses, 2.5 hours away from GF, I've already lived there before

Move to GF's college town
  • Pros: with GF yay!, hours from family
  • Cons: possible expensive rent, need to find new job (tough), possible other foolish expenses, hours from friends

Move to NH
  • Pros: help spread freedom, have fun as an activist, meet people who are total assholes when it comes to political beliefs
  • Cons: thats a long way from WI, most details remain unknown, it is a long way from anyone I know, GF would not be happy with the distance

I'm leaning towards GF's fathers' place for a while, then life has settled down a bit, NH.

Any thoughts?
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atomiccat

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #99 on: April 09, 2009, 03:28:39 AM »

can you move in with your GF and share rent?, unless you don't plan on staying with your Girl friend for a long time or maybe talk her into going to NH

Bill Brasky

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #100 on: April 09, 2009, 11:22:00 AM »



I'm leaning towards GF's fathers' place for a while, then life has settled down a bit, NH.

Any thoughts?

I think this is probably your best direction,-- if your life and the people in it are relatively normal.  If your daily life is reasonably stable.  Living with people you're tight with is always a good place to be, if you KNOW its not gonna turn out fucked up in a few months.  But its gotta be a slam-dunk, it can't be a gamble. 

If you have a burning desire to get out there and party like a fuckinasshole, fuck chicks, disappear for days..  then you should probably do it with your buddies. 
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Lindsey

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #101 on: April 09, 2009, 01:20:50 PM »

My plan is GTFO as soon as humanly possible.   :x
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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #102 on: April 09, 2009, 02:06:01 PM »

Quote
can you move in with your GF and share rent?

She'll be in a dorm next year so, no. Then she's studying to be a doctor so she'll be sitting tight for awhile.
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jeffersonish

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #103 on: April 12, 2009, 02:37:31 AM »

I thought the "He" in the poll was Obama so I picked "he's a dick and I hope he fucks it up" before reading the OP.
Sorry :P

No prob.


As for gold... I just got done reading "Guide to investing in gold & silver", which is printed under the "Rich Dad/Poor Dad" collection.
All I can say is... WOW. It's like reading an episode of FTL, except it's the same meme being promulgated by people other than selfdescribed talk show dufuses.

I am no longer thinking about betting against IBM. I think it's a sure bet, but I think the opportunity cost of investing RIGHT FUCKING NOW in anything other than precious metals, is just too great.

And I had been buying ETFs. No more of that for me. Bullion, and Gold Eagles, or nothin'. Stocks I'll buy when they really start tanking.

Metals are eventually gonna go up.  But they're gonna come down first.  Governments all around the globe are changing their gold plays to capitalize themselves.  They don't have the loose change to play in it - otherwise it would stay high, because its cheap right now, so they SHOULD be buying it.  The private sector is no longer going 'long' in it, hedging against the market.  As both of these groups emerge from their gold hedge, and other investors are making market plays, it deflates, because nobody wants it.  Its not to say "NOBODY" wants it, thats silly, but its a supply-side economic issue, and it will fall. 

GOLD @ 800, DENISGODDARD!! 


I heard something in passing and it keeps nagging at me... I Forget where I heard it, but someone on tv was saying central banks are selling right now to keep prices reasonable because it's a panic trigger if people see gold double in price. I think that will only work for so long and sooner or later their willingness to play that game will flag, inflation will be hittng, and gold is gonna go up. That's why I have some long term gold options. Now that the price is down a bit I'm buying some more and if it drops again, I'll buy some more. Basically, I'm betting that gold will go over $950/oz. sometime before 2011. I suspect it will be in a few months and I'm thinking 1200 will be be pretty easy. With my leverage, that would be a 100% gain. A price of 1500/oz. would mean a 220% gain... and that's on my highest priced options of 3 I might hold.

Another idea regarding market manipulation... maybe they're flooding the market to keep prices low while they buy some up for their personal accounts, then they'll stop using government gold to flood the market, prices will go up quickly, that will lead to a panic buy session, pushing prices way up very fast at which point they will sell their personal stakes at a tidy profit before the market settled down below that level. I don't really think this is what is going on, but I wouldn't be surprised if something like it actually is.
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sillyperson

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Re: The Plan Thread
« Reply #104 on: April 12, 2009, 08:47:43 AM »

A price of 1500/oz.
Is on the low end of what I am betting we'll see within 5 years.
And silver is an even better prospect. Much better. I'm weighting at least 60% into silver. Maybe more.
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