The Free Talk Live BBS
Free Talk Live => General => Topic started by: The ghost of a ghost of a ghost on February 05, 2010, 10:22:42 AM
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This thread will be dedicated to any and all economic charts you want to post.
Since the employment figures were released yesterday I'll start with this one:
(http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4b6c2e920000000000e7c1a8-620-402/scariest-jobs-chart-ever-0210.jpg)
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Please: link to the source (http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/employment-report-20k-jobs-lost-97.html).
(I had to go there to confirm that it is based on the new numbers (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFvLQKf6GQsY) just released today (http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201002050845dowjonesdjonline000354&title=data-snapus-jan-jobless-rate-falls-to-97-payrolls--20k).)
And that graph is completely irrelevant, because it counts government make-work jobs as well. If the government went ahead and gave everyone a job, would that make the economy better in the long run? Of course not!
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I hate charts like this because I'm colorblind. Which year did the line stretching the length of the chart represent?
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I hate charts like this because I'm colorblind. Which year did the line stretching the length of the chart represent?
Looks like the 2001
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It was rude of them to publish this "closed source" graph image without the data spreadsheet to go with it. :roll:
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(http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4b82e5b100000000009e720a/chart-of-the-day-commercial-and-industrial-loans-at-all-commercial-banks.gif)
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-commercial-and-industrial-loans-at-all-commercial-banks-2010-2 (http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-commercial-and-industrial-loans-at-all-commercial-banks-2010-2)
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(http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au1825nyb.gif)
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(http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4bebf7e17f8b9a0508170b00-577-461/chart.png)
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I don't think deflated is the right word. Perhaps denominated?
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Valuated.
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(http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4bf7db8b7f8b9a0b3ccf0600/dow-in-gold.jpg)
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(http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4bf7db8b7f8b9a0b3ccf0600/dow-in-gold.jpg)
You know what that chart says about the last eighteen months?
Well, I'll tell ya. It means, if you switched out of equities into gold eighteen months ago, you got your face ripped off.
I don't know why they measure valuation of two somewhat-unrelated investment vehicles, especially on a one-line comparative analysis, but frankly I think its a lot of horseshit. Because they are investment vehicles unto themselves. Its like those scales they have at Ripleys museums, where you can stand on it and see what you'd weigh on Jupiter.
Well thats all well and good, but we're not on Jupiter, and if we were, you'd be a fucking blob of jelly.
Occasionally, they will mention on a long-term basis, the ounce ratio. They will say, on average, in 1980, the S+P was trading at 5.5 ounces of gold. Now its trading at one-point-one. That can mean a lot of things, and you can read it a lot of ways. It means, for example, you missed the boat on M'soft, Google, and Apple, and have a nice solid five thousand in gold - as opposed to the idiotic six-figure portfolio you'd have if you invested in any one of those three.
The indexes are funny things. They are barometers for the overall health of the market, where individual equities are being traded. They show the vitality of the economy in certain ways, and act in negative fashion in other ways.
But they are, generally, traded in dollars. So mucking up the works by valuating the indexes in alpaca fur or Dom '51 is really kinda retarded. Those things have their own swings, and operate independently.
Currently, gold is behaving pretty crazily because of the euro fiasco. Now that the euro has (probably) gained some traction, its very likely that gold will see a severe pullback. It has double-topped in the 120 GLD area, and is now in the weekly timeframe showing a dark Cloud Cover candle pattern, and the double-top is reacting at the 161.8 fibtrace line I showed in a thread back in September.
It is showing a bearish signal on the MACD histogram, and its stochastic got a bearish cross.
In the monthly timeframe, the candle is a shooting star, bearish. It is most likely going to break its long-term support where its trending on the fifty-day moving average. Personally, I think it retests its 1000 level again - and if it stays higher, good. That'll be a higher-low.
How does that reflect on the Dow? I haven't the foggiest. Nor do I care. Because I don't trade the indexes in gold, I trade them in dollars. In the short-term, it's gonna cause a vacuum as people escape the "safe-haven" trade of gold, which safety is just an illusion. They'll probably dive into equities for a short bounce - which by the way, will probably stay in the trend-lines of that ridiculous chart.
Heres gold, in the weekly timeframe, corresponding to nothing but itself and a healthy dose of Euro bullshit
(http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/5548/gld2.jpg)
Of course, it could catch nicely on that support line, and take a moon-shot for 1300. But I don't think so - because of the bearish divergence on the weekly MACD histogram, as people exit with profits and the euro crisis presumably wanes (which is also bullshit, they're falling apart faster than a spring snowman, but people tend to be short-term thinkers)
Heres my color commentary on gold, in fifteen thousand words or less- gold is the ugliest girl at the dance, but she has a really nice car. Ford went up a thousand percent off its bottom in March '09. Nobody wants gold, gold is a fucking hedge. People buy it to make their portfolio look less risky as they short the piss out of falling equities, and smooth the trading action when they can't get out at toppy-tops and pivot-reversal bottoms on the short side.
Theres nothing wrong with sheltering and hedging. Its a very good practice. But even the best owners (traders) of gold sell on the highs. Thats what made that double-top. A second chance by the grace of god to escape on the rip. Everybody who bought gold since September of '09 has been under-water, a loser in a nine-month trade. Now they're even. Thats a long time to hold something and get nothing back.
And on the off-chance that the whole world falls apart and burns to shit, when the dust settles, you'll have an empty portfolio that you liquidated in the panic, and a chunk of gold. You'll look like a genius, albeit one who lost his ass in the other 80% of his trades - which is better than having worthless paper - but not as good as the guys who knew their beeswax.
Long-term strategy, gold will be worth a lot more several years from now - no fuckin shit Einstein. Excuse me for not jerkin' off at the potential of making 20% in five years, or more, or less - depending how expensive it was when I bought in. Everybody gets jungle-fever when it gets hot, and thats a stupid trade. You wanna learn to buy gold, learn to read the charts. Buy the dips. Don't just buy indiscriminately, it is not infallible investing. You can spend a whole year upside-down on your little genius plan, just to break even.
Look at that chart, if you bought in early '08, you didn't see one penny of profit until late '09. Considering the hype, its absurd. Now, if you were smart enough to restrain yourself to buy in late '08, you're doing pretty good. Six months makes a difference, and its hard to foretell the future. But if you put a gun to my head, I'd say it was a bad move to buy now - and I could be wrong. But either way, the downside momentum is pretty obvious, and it looks like GLD is gonna take a dump.
Now, having said that, we're talking the digital market, on the motherfuckin NYSE, where everything is down tot he goddamn penny. If you walk into your local coin shop in Catfish, Utah, you're gonna get ripped buying a 1/10 round for a hundred-fifty. So wake the fuck up, Sport. Unless you're a goddamn idiot, then do whatever floats your boat.
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So, there will be some gold buying opportunities coming up?
Good.
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We'll see. (http://sivers.org/mp3/DEREK_SIVERS-Still_Too_Soon_to_Tell-1998-08.mp3)
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I don't own any gold.
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So, there will be some gold buying opportunities coming up?
Good.
Maybe. Your last positive buy signal was early February. It'll be interesting to see what happens on the challenge of the previous high.
On the weekly charts, its got bearish signals, probly from coming off that high so hard. Thats a divergence. You shouldn't buy in a divergence. When your price is bouncing off the line upward - like it is right now - and the momentum is still rolling downhill. That could stall the price action and cause a lower high, break the support (around its current price) and plummet.
The double-top you just put in, kind of ominous. Breaking past it will cause a moon-shot. That why goldbugs and I would differ right here, they'll argue this is a positive place to buy, but it's contrary to the technical signals. (the divergence I mentioned)
For gold, and I'm obviously using the GLD to track it, I wouldn't drill down beyond the weekly charts. You want a macro view. Theres too much noise in the daily view. Then when the signals look bottomed, use the daily charts to hone a buy price - at that point you'll probably miss the "low" but the low will be established, and thats what you want for those swings that are several months long.
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I don't own any gold.
I'm speaking in the wider sense, here of course... GLD, GDX, etc
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Brasky has the Dow thread locked, but I thought this Mises article called "Don't Go with the Flow (http://mises.org/daily/4435)" was pretty interesting.