The Free Talk Live BBS
Free Talk Live => General => Topic started by: BonerJoe on October 23, 2011, 02:10:57 PM
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Step 3) Wait for the US dollar to crash (somewhere between 6 and 24 months)
Holdon bucko, didn't you say it was supposed to happen by now?
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didn't you say it was supposed to happen by now?
I don't think so. Actually my estimate has been shortened.
About 2 years ago I figured it'd happen in ~5 years, plus or minus
Now I'm estimating less than two.
It really all depends on the interest rate.
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I'm gonna go with March of next year.
Just a guess, obviously.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8844646/World-power-swings-back-to-America.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8844646/World-power-swings-back-to-America.html)
World power swings back to America
The American phoenix is slowly rising again. Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy. Manufacturing will have closed the labour gap with China in a clutch of key industries. The current account might even be in surplus.
It is an opinion piece but there is some solid info in it.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8844646/World-power-swings-back-to-America.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8844646/World-power-swings-back-to-America.html)
Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy. Manufacturing will have closed the labour gap with China in a clutch of key industries. The current account might even be in surplus.
It's hilarious propaganda.
I posted on the article with my Disqus account, looks like they deleted my comment, which was basically:
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
I will make a note of that name. You're going to look like a pretty big fool when interest rates on the US T-bond do to the USA what they've already done to Ireland, then Greece, then Portugal ...
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Yeah, its kinda funny how people think that if we can just "get back to work" that somehow, it just negates all the servicing of the insurmountable debt already created.
Sorta like a individual household somehow running up 200 million dollars in credit card debt in hard times and saying "If only I could get my 60k per year job back, things would be fine again"
The math just doesn't add up for the rosey picture painted.
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Step 3) Wait for the US dollar to crash (somewhere between 6 and 24 months)
Holdon bucko, didn't you say it was supposed to happen by now?
Not saying it won't happen, or won't happen soon, but to put in a historical perspective, I remember different groups of people periodically saying "the shit will hit the fan within a year or two" going back to when I was a kid in the 70s.
MWD
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No one can predict this stuff.
There is no predictive model for innovation.
The U.S. Was fucking falling apart in 1979.
Boom. Microchips.
Holy fuck everything was awesome for most people for a good eight to ten years. Memories are short about how much the electronic part of thr tech revolution changed things because of what came later. but shit seriously changed in the late 70's/early 80's with the home computer explosion.
Then things started to settle again.
BOOM. INTERNETS.
BOOM. MASS STORAGE.
BOOM. SOCIAL NETWORKING.
etc. All this shit cause massive shifts in an economy for good or ill. Better people get picked for jerbs, better management of resources, etc.
We (Meaning anyone) can't guess when that sort of stuff will happen and create an economic boom that dwarfs the previous collapse.
As far as I can tell, the economy DID collapse with the 70's oil crisis, it's just that more economy exploded onto the scene in such a big way, that the collapse was barely noticeable.
Lil' stream. Someone throws a giant brick into it, and it would have blocked the whole lil' stream, but at the exact same moment a giant storm hits and raises the water level two whole feet.
Everyone forgets the brick. Nobody forgets the two foot wave.
Again, a collapse could happen tomorrow, but the system is too complex to build an accurately predictive model. If you could build an accurately predictive economic model we should all be Keynesians.
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I think inflation will continue to erode U.S. median household income. I don't think the dollar has to necessarily collapse though!
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I think inflation will continue to erode U.S. median household income. I don't think the dollar has to necessarily collapse though!
I agree. Add in the ingenuity for invention that John Shaw was mentioning and I think we won't see a complete collapse any time soon in the USA. I will admit its a possibility, but I still think a slim one, because people here will figure things out and work around the red tape religiously no matter how bad the Gov tries to mess with us.
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I think inflation will continue to erode U.S. median household income. I don't think the dollar has to necessarily collapse though!
I agree. Add in the ingenuity for invention that John Shaw was mentioning and I think we won't see a complete collapse any time soon in the USA. I will admit its a possibility, but I still think a slim one, because people here will figure things out and work around the red tape religiously no matter how bad the Gov tries to mess with us.
This, and John's.
Its called inflation. Theres always spikes in it.
An actual "collapse", thats weirdo-land. Yes it can happen. But it's not likely. Everything is all interwoven. We hold tons of other countries debt, they hold ours. If we start to hemorrhage, we unwind our positions in so much shit, everyone deflates slowly.
I know the general consensus is "they're stupid", but they're far from stupid. And there is no "they". "They" actually consists of hundreds of very large institutions all around the globe.
A crash is a crash. They happen. But a hyperinflation crash is not a crash. They are two very different things. Personally, I believe we'll just see the systematic inflation we've always seen. Someday, there will be no coinage. It will be useless, as dollars will be sufficient for rounding. Maybe the lowest denomination will be a fifty-cent piece.
History shows as long as wages keep pace with goods and inflation, it all works out.
But I absolutely admit, the numbers sound frightening, they're hard to comprehend.
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Everything is all interwoven. We hold tons of other countries debt, they hold ours.
I'm not sure if the U.S. government holds any foreign debt--though I may be wrong. Individuals in the U.S. certainly hold a large amount of foreign debt.
Personally, I don't care if the Chinese or whomever own U.S. debt. The only reason they own so much in the first place is to peg their currency to the U.S. dollar. They actually HAVE to buy U.S. government bonds if they stick to the peg.
If they don't stick to the peg, there will be enough buyers of U.S. government bonds because primary dealers in the U.S. are REQUIRED BY U.S. LAW to make a market in U.S. govt debt. A failed bond auction in the U.S. is less likely than nuclear war because the PD's MUST buy U.S. Govt debt.
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Everything is all interwoven. We hold tons of other countries debt, they hold ours.
I'm not sure if the U.S. government holds any foreign debt--though I may be wrong. Individuals in the U.S. certainly hold a large amount of foreign debt.
With all due respect - because I'm already in a hundred arguments across this godforsaken forum - yes, they absolutely do.
Its a debt-for-debt structure.
Other countries buy ours - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_security (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_security)
and we buy theirs - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_bond (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_bond)
If they have a flag, we buy it. Every government issues bonds.
This creates a global "safety net", and it also gives us (and our allies) leverage towards their diplomatic policy.
I am of the opinion we are currently embroiled in WW3, and it's taking place in the financial markets. This is why everybody's making such a stink about the Euro-debt crisis, with the "PIIGS" countries. Greece is the "canary in the coal mine". Because they are so small, they're symptomatic of larger collapse. Nobody actually gives a shit if Greece collapses. Its the size of Rhode Island. But if they DO collapse, it portends a domino effect, the other countries may not be able to hold their system together as they pour financial aid into that small but gaping wound of a socialist country.
Then comes Italy. Then Spain. We hold debt on all of 'em. These are our ALLIES. And we actually have to keep buying it, because it's scheduled auction just like ours is.
If we suddenly stopped buying foreign debt at the same rate, (not financial interest rate, but volume) it would signal a lack of confidence. We buy a billion from those guys, half-a-bil from those folks, a hundred-mil from these folks, every so-many weeks, like clockwork.
If we stopped doing that, it would be no different than if the Chinese stopped buying ours. It would be shockwaves in their news. CHINA STOPPED BUYING OUR DEBT TODAY! Freakout.
Same shit, but from their perspective. Their currency would collapse. Imagine a country like.. Bulgeria. Or Czechoslovakia. (do they still exist?) A guy with a hundred "dollars" in spending power, suddenly couldn't buy a loaf of bread. Instant riots.
That is why we buy their debt. Its easier than going to war with them.
And its not like its an endless money hole.. we churn it. As the bonds mature, we cash them. They pay us, and we buy more with it. Its a loop. What everyone is afraid of is, cutting the cycle. This is the term "Credit market freeze".
Thats why everyone in Greece is looking at us like "What the fuck, dudes?" And we're like NO, we buy 2 billion a year, no more, no less. We are NOT bailing out motherfucking Greece. So, they turn their attention to Germany, and Germany wants to cut them the fuck out of the Euro Union.
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It's the Czech Republic, now.
My wife is from there.
The never joined the Euro :)
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I'M SORRY TO HEAR THAT. IS SHE OKAY?
(http://scottbrothers.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/crop-03-the-jerk-mbdjerk_ec005_h.jpg)
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With all due respect - because I'm already in a hundred arguments across this godforsaken forum - yes, they absolutely do.
Its a debt-for-debt structure.
Other countries buy ours - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_security (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_security)
and we buy theirs - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_bond (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_bond)
I'm not sure what a debt-for-debt structure means. The link you provide just explains what a govt. bond is--it doesn't show that the us federal government holds foreign currency. Granted, the fed holds euro and other currencies via swaps with foreign central banks. However, I can't think of a single entity in the U.S. Govt that buys foreign bonds. Also, most foreign countries hold U.S. govt bonds because they have to buy dollars to maintain their currency pegs. They almost always boy bonds, notes and bills with those dollars.
I am of the opinion we are currently embroiled in WW3, and it's taking place in the financial markets. This is why everybody's making such a stink about the Euro-debt crisis, with the "PIIGS" countries. Greece is the "canary in the coal mine". Because they are so small, they're symptomatic of larger collapse. Nobody actually gives a shit if Greece collapses. Its the size of Rhode Island. But if they DO collapse, it portends a domino effect, the other countries may not be able to hold their system together as they pour financial aid into that small but gaping wound of a socialist country.
Then comes Italy. Then Spain. We hold debt on all of 'em. These are our ALLIES. And we actually have to keep buying it, because it's scheduled auction just like ours is.
I'm not sure what you mean when you say "we hold debt on all of 'em". The problem is that some banks, particularly in the Eurozone, hold European periphery bonds. If they take a large haircut on the bonds, the banks' equity will decline precipitously because banks lever their assets to 15-25 for every dollar of equity.
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I don't want to go over my 5 sentence per post rule to explain how fiat currency works so... here PV enjoy.
The American Dream By The Provocateur Network (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPWH5TlbloU#ws)
Just because the dollar bounced back somehow doesn't mean reality changed. They can't punish the productive then reward the leaches forever.
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(http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif)
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Silver's up double that, percentage wise.
Looks like a bumpy ride for metals for the rest of the year to me.
No rhyme or reason to it anymore lately.
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Silver's up double that, percentage wise.
Looks like a bumpy ride for metals for the rest of the year to me.
No rhyme or reason to it anymore lately.
Drop when peeps decide to sell some off yo. Lots of people have made a lot of cash if they've bought mucho metalo.
Some big players cash on om FRNs and boom, price drops. Shit hold its value well, though.
Buy it to have, not to sell. Buying it cheap means you can have more, obviously.
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One thing seems consistent in silver though..........
When oil drops, silver drops about the same percentage. Same thing in the other direction.
I'm just one of those people that likes to know the cause of a sudden sell off. I probably shouldn't think about such things as much as I do, but thats always been my curse. Too much thinking.
And no, I aint selling. Not really buying anymore either though right now. Works been a little slow in the last 3 months or so due to this recession we got going on right now, customers pulling back on their spending and a few just dropping off the radar altogether, so im kinda in hold pattern, paying down the few debts I have and keeping the rest in cash if things really really go to hell in my business.
Edit - WTF, like 4 minutes after I post, I get an email from dispatch with 12 new rollouts for work, medium size jobs to keep me busy for the next two or three weeks or so.
Im tellin ya..... no rhyme or reason to anything right now.
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Silver's up double that, percentage wise.
I'm overweight 300% silver-assets-to-gold-ones. 8)
No rhyme or reason to it anymore lately.
Not exactly a big surprise, this jump.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE78M11C20111025 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE78M11C20111025)
But that's exactly how it goes.... the little random Brownian motions still persist, but when Market Fundamentals are pushing on the whole system, you see more and more gaps in a particular direction.
Apply enough pressure and wait....
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POP!
The American Dream By The Provocateur Network
BTW, I love this video
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I think it is very possible for the dollar to collapse but I think they will dodge it. That is just a guest of mine. They are going to figure out some way to hold it off.
I do agree with most people who beileve the view of they won't dodge it forever. It will most likely happen some day.
The reason I don't think it will happen now though is that I don't think there is another currency strong enough to take over the US dollar's role. I think the Euro was the closest but the European Union has screwed that up in the last few years.
Most people say China will take over as the world economic leader but China is essentially a house of cards with all those empty cities. Speaking of that what is the idea China is using behind all those? DId anyone ever figure that out?
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Did it happen?
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Yes. Thank goodness I blew all my money on silver.
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Michael Schneider over @ The Economic Collapse Blog has been saying an economic collapse is imminent since 2009. Gerald Celente made several wrong predictions. You just can't trust these self-styled "trends forecasters".