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Author Topic: Denis' US dollar crash forecast  (Read 7973 times)

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BonerJoe

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Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« on: October 23, 2011, 02:10:57 PM »

Step 3) Wait for the US dollar to crash (somewhere between 6 and 24 months)

Holdon bucko, didn't you say it was supposed to happen by now?
« Last Edit: October 23, 2011, 02:13:14 PM by Joseph Voluntaryist Non-Chalker Delano Boner »
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sillyperson

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2011, 06:56:26 AM »

didn't you say it was supposed to happen by now?
I don't think so. Actually my estimate has been shortened.
About 2 years ago I figured it'd happen in ~5 years, plus or minus
Now I'm estimating less than two.

It really all depends on the interest rate.

Turd Ferguson

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2011, 01:10:00 PM »

I'm gonna go with March of next year.

Just a guess, obviously.
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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2011, 01:36:40 PM »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8844646/World-power-swings-back-to-America.html

World power swings back to America
The American phoenix is slowly rising again. Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy. Manufacturing will have closed the labour gap with China in a clutch of key industries. The current account might even be in surplus.

It is an opinion piece but there is some solid info in it.
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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2011, 02:29:05 PM »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8844646/World-power-swings-back-to-America.html
Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy. Manufacturing will have closed the labour gap with China in a clutch of key industries. The current account might even be in surplus.
It's hilarious propaganda.
I posted on the article with my Disqus account, looks like they deleted my comment, which was basically:

Quote
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
I will make a note of that name. You're going to look like a pretty big fool when interest rates on the US T-bond do to the USA what they've already done to Ireland, then Greece, then Portugal ...

Turd Ferguson

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2011, 02:39:33 PM »

Yeah, its kinda funny how people think that if we can just "get back to work" that somehow, it just negates all the servicing of the insurmountable debt already created.

Sorta like a individual household somehow running up 200 million dollars in credit card debt in hard times and saying "If only I could get my 60k per year job back, things would be fine again"

The math just doesn't add up for the rosey picture painted.
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MichaelWDean

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2011, 02:48:25 PM »

Step 3) Wait for the US dollar to crash (somewhere between 6 and 24 months)

Holdon bucko, didn't you say it was supposed to happen by now?

Not saying it won't happen, or won't happen soon, but to put in a historical perspective, I remember different groups of people periodically saying "the shit will hit the fan within a year or two" going back to when I was a kid in the 70s.

MWD
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John Shaw

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2011, 06:29:42 PM »

No one can predict this stuff.

There is no predictive model for innovation.

The U.S. Was fucking falling apart in 1979.

Boom. Microchips.

Holy fuck everything was awesome for most people for a good eight to ten years. Memories are short about how much the electronic part of thr tech revolution changed things because of what came later. but shit seriously changed in the late 70's/early 80's with the home computer explosion.

Then things started to settle again.

BOOM. INTERNETS.

BOOM. MASS STORAGE.

BOOM. SOCIAL NETWORKING.

etc. All this shit cause massive shifts in an economy for good or ill. Better people get picked for jerbs, better management of resources, etc.

We (Meaning anyone) can't guess when that sort of stuff will happen and create an economic boom that dwarfs the previous collapse.

As far as I can tell, the economy DID collapse with the 70's oil crisis, it's just that more economy exploded onto the scene in such a big way, that the collapse was barely noticeable.

Lil' stream. Someone throws a giant brick into it, and it would have blocked the whole lil' stream, but at the exact same moment a giant storm hits and raises the water level two whole feet.

Everyone forgets the brick. Nobody forgets the two foot wave.

Again, a collapse could happen tomorrow, but the system is too complex to build an accurately predictive model. If you could build an accurately predictive economic model we should all be Keynesians.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2011, 01:40:54 AM by John Shaw »
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MOE from between St. Joe's River and the railroad tracks

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2011, 07:15:44 PM »

I think inflation will continue to erode U.S. median household income. I don't think the dollar has to necessarily collapse though!

Sam Gunn (since nobody got Admiral Naismith)

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2011, 10:26:38 PM »

I think inflation will continue to erode U.S. median household income. I don't think the dollar has to necessarily collapse though!


I agree.  Add in the ingenuity for invention that John Shaw was mentioning and I think we won't see a complete collapse any time soon in the USA.  I will admit its a possibility, but I still think a slim one, because people here will figure things out and work around the red tape religiously no matter how bad the Gov tries to mess with us.
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Bill Brasky

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2011, 11:19:49 PM »

I think inflation will continue to erode U.S. median household income. I don't think the dollar has to necessarily collapse though!


I agree.  Add in the ingenuity for invention that John Shaw was mentioning and I think we won't see a complete collapse any time soon in the USA.  I will admit its a possibility, but I still think a slim one, because people here will figure things out and work around the red tape religiously no matter how bad the Gov tries to mess with us.

This, and John's.

Its called inflation.  Theres always spikes in it. 

An actual "collapse", thats weirdo-land.  Yes it can happen.  But it's not likely.  Everything is all interwoven.  We hold tons of other countries debt, they hold ours.  If we start to hemorrhage, we unwind our positions in so much shit, everyone deflates slowly. 

I know the general consensus is "they're stupid", but they're far from stupid.  And there is no "they".  "They" actually consists of hundreds of very large institutions all around the globe. 

A crash is a crash.  They happen.  But a hyperinflation crash is not a crash.  They are two very different things.  Personally, I believe we'll just see the systematic inflation we've always seen.  Someday, there will be no coinage.  It will be useless, as dollars will be sufficient for rounding.  Maybe the lowest denomination will be a fifty-cent piece. 

History shows as long as wages keep pace with goods and inflation, it all works out. 

But I absolutely admit, the numbers sound frightening, they're hard to comprehend. 

 
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MOE from between St. Joe's River and the railroad tracks

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2011, 12:34:17 AM »

Quote
Everything is all interwoven.  We hold tons of other countries debt, they hold ours.

I'm not sure if the U.S. government holds any foreign debt--though I may be wrong. Individuals in the U.S. certainly hold a large amount of foreign debt.

Personally, I don't care if the Chinese or whomever own U.S. debt. The only reason they own so much in the first place is to peg their currency to the U.S. dollar. They actually HAVE to buy U.S. government bonds if they stick to the peg.

If they don't stick to the peg, there will be enough buyers of U.S. government bonds because primary dealers in the U.S. are REQUIRED BY U.S. LAW to make a market in U.S. govt debt.  A failed bond auction in the U.S. is less likely than nuclear war because the PD's MUST buy U.S. Govt debt.

Bill Brasky

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2011, 02:04:40 AM »

Quote
Everything is all interwoven.  We hold tons of other countries debt, they hold ours.

I'm not sure if the U.S. government holds any foreign debt--though I may be wrong. Individuals in the U.S. certainly hold a large amount of foreign debt.


With all due respect - because I'm already in a hundred arguments across this godforsaken forum - yes, they absolutely do.

Its a debt-for-debt structure. 

Other countries buy ours - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_security

and we buy theirs - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_bond


If they have a flag, we buy it.  Every government issues bonds. 

This creates a global "safety net", and it also gives us (and our allies) leverage towards their diplomatic policy.

I am of the opinion we are currently embroiled in WW3, and it's taking place in the financial markets.  This is why everybody's making such a stink about the Euro-debt crisis, with the "PIIGS" countries.  Greece is the "canary in the coal mine".  Because they are so small, they're symptomatic of larger collapse.  Nobody actually gives a shit if Greece collapses.  Its the size of Rhode Island.  But if they DO collapse, it portends a domino effect, the other countries may not be able to hold their system together as they pour financial aid into that small but gaping wound of a socialist country. 

Then comes Italy.  Then Spain.  We hold debt on all of 'em.  These are our ALLIES.  And we actually have to keep buying it, because it's scheduled auction just like ours is. 

If we suddenly stopped buying foreign debt at the same rate, (not financial interest rate, but volume) it would signal a lack of confidence.  We buy a billion from those guys, half-a-bil from those folks, a hundred-mil from these folks, every so-many weeks, like clockwork. 

If we stopped doing that, it would be no different than if the Chinese stopped buying ours.  It would be shockwaves in their news.  CHINA STOPPED BUYING OUR DEBT TODAY!  Freakout. 

Same shit, but from their perspective.  Their currency would collapse.  Imagine a country like..  Bulgeria.  Or Czechoslovakia.  (do they still exist?)  A guy with a hundred "dollars" in spending power, suddenly couldn't buy a loaf of bread.  Instant riots.

That is why we buy their debt.  Its easier than going to war with them. 

And its not like its an endless money hole..  we churn it.  As the bonds mature, we cash them.  They pay us, and we buy more with it.  Its a loop.  What everyone is afraid of is, cutting the cycle.  This is the term "Credit market freeze". 

Thats why everyone in Greece is looking at us like "What the fuck, dudes?"  And we're like NO, we buy 2 billion a year, no more, no less.  We are NOT bailing out motherfucking Greece.  So, they turn their attention to Germany, and Germany wants to cut them the fuck out of the Euro Union. 







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sillyperson

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2011, 07:42:09 AM »

It's the Czech Republic, now.

My wife is from there.

The never joined the Euro :)

Bill Brasky

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Re: Denis' US dollar crash forecast
« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2011, 08:06:03 AM »

I'M SORRY TO HEAR THAT.  IS SHE OKAY?



« Last Edit: October 25, 2011, 08:10:43 AM by Bill Brasky »
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