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fatcat

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"Anatomy of a Collapse"
« on: June 10, 2009, 02:22:41 PM »



Picks of the piece:

"Anti-Regulatory zealots head many regulatory agencies"

"Behavioral economics reveals traditional economics - Humans are rational, Markets are efficient - is terribly wrong"


Glad to see all that complicated economy shit is cleared up then.
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sillyperson

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2009, 02:49:31 PM »

I'm not sure the implosion will be in '09... I figure on 2011 or so.
I could be wrong, though. Seen the latest deficit numbers?

Economist.com: US Deficit to Triple
Quote from: Economist.com
"Bad as the deficit was under Mr Bush, it will more than triple this year, from $459 billion in 2008 to $1.845 trillion
[...]
Meanwhile, the long-term fiscal outlook grows ever grimmer. Americans are getting older. The government’s unfunded obligations to give them pensions and health care are equivalent to a debt of $483,000 for every household."

fatcat

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2009, 03:39:22 PM »

I don't agree with the piece, I think its an overly simplistic way to try and explain a very complex situation by just making a graphic and attaching a bunch of labels to it to create the appearance of an intelligent overview of the situation, when it actuality its an extremely facile way of trying to explain the modern economic woes.

Whats worrying is this thing got hundreds of diggs.
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Harry Tuttle

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2009, 04:51:01 PM »

What annoys me is the repetition about how this whole thing is caused by lack of regulation. As long as every transaction isn't carefully regulated there will be drones who complain that shit isn't regulated enough.
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Bill Brasky

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2009, 08:52:49 PM »

I'm not sure the implosion will be in '09... I figure on 2011 or so.
I could be wrong, though. Seen the latest deficit numbers?

Economist.com: US Deficit to Triple
Quote from: Economist.com
"Bad as the deficit was under Mr Bush, it will more than triple this year, from $459 billion in 2008 to $1.845 trillion
[...]
Meanwhile, the long-term fiscal outlook grows ever grimmer. Americans are getting older. The government’s unfunded obligations to give them pensions and health care are equivalent to a debt of $483,000 for every household."



A guest on a news show few days back said:  "Obama's spending makes Bush look like a flinty New England conservative".  It was worth a chuckle, I like a good turn of phrase. 

--

As for the spending, we're fucked.  We don't have unlimited money, he just thinks we do.  And thats the recipe for disaster. 

Every time I see the news regarding Obama's spending, they try to blow that 'no new taxes' smokescreen.  And then the outraged opposition guy reminds us that there are plenty of taxes like cap-and-trade being foisted upon commerce, which will then be passed along to the consumer, which are an inordinate burden to the lower class because their bills eat a larger percentage of their income. 

Also worth mentioning, the increase in taxes for those earning +$200k.  He throws that figure around as if nobody makes that kind of money, it is a fabulously wealthy sum, far above the standard wage earner.  But 200k is not what it once was.  And this 200k figure he's fixated on comes from a Reagan Era tax reform, adjusted for inflation that 200k limit translates to over $700,000  in modern dollars. 

I'm not for taxing any group more than another, if we have to tax people at all.  Flat tax is the way to go, if you want to be fair.  If a guy earns a dollar, and you tax a few percent of it, he gets the same treatment if he earns 10,000 or a million.  I keep hearing all this shit about equality.  So stop dividing people.  Rich people have loopholes they can pay to exploit, and poor people get waived.  The cats in the middle end up getting fucked, and thats the real crime in these socialist rackets.

People want an equality they won't fuckin' pay for.  I think we should go back to a 5/8ths vote, and it applies to you if you're taking exemptions outside the norm.  People would jump off that welfare wagon in a week, if their status was denigrated to that of a citizen who needs special treatment.  Which is exactly what the upper tier of income is exploiting, tax programs that allow them to escape costs the normal citizen cannot avoid - which is no different than a welfare program. 
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sillyperson

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2009, 07:50:17 AM »

As for the spending, we're fucked.  We don't have unlimited money, he just thinks we do.  And thats the recipe for disaster.  
Yep.

And now with the bond market imploding and interest rates ratcheting up, it is exactly as predicted: the stimulus isn't going to create the desired liquidity. So Ben B. & Timmy G. will have to print more money, which won't exactly make the bond markets more attractive.

Two words:
"Wiemar Republic"

Two more words:
BUY GOLD
(or oil, or any other commodity with intrinsic value)

Bill Brasky

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2009, 08:46:19 AM »

Pfeh.  Outperform gold. 
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BobRobertson

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2009, 10:55:32 AM »

What annoys me is the repetition about how this whole thing is caused by lack of regulation. As long as every transaction isn't carefully regulated there will be drones who complain that shit isn't regulated enough.

It's another example of the Big Lie.

There was no deregulation. The regulators were all over everything, making it worse the whole time. The "deregulation" fans act as if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac weren't themselves government agencies.

This tactic has been used for centuries. Make up reasons to regulate successful businesses, up the regulations until they stagger and fail, then blame the "free market" for the failure, therefore justifying the government sponsored programs that would otherwise not be able to compete with the market businesses.
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"I regret that I am now to die in the belief that the useless sacrifice of themselves by the generation of 1776 to acquire self-government and happiness to their country is to be thrown away by the unwise and unworthy passions of their sons, and that my only consolation is to be that I live not to weep over it."
-- Thomas Jefferson, April 26th 1820

sillyperson

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2009, 12:05:54 PM »

If the regulators were wrong for allowing banks to make risky loans and use special investment vehicles to make the books look good,
what does it man now that the government is doing exactly those same things in the banks and industries it owns post-bailout?

Diogenes The Cynic

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2009, 02:42:29 PM »

What annoys me is the repetition about how this whole thing is caused by lack of regulation. As long as every transaction isn't carefully regulated there will be drones who complain that shit isn't regulated enough.

It's another example of the Big Lie.

There was no deregulation. The regulators were all over everything, making it worse the whole time. The "deregulation" fans act as if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac weren't themselves government agencies.

This tactic has been used for centuries. Make up reasons to regulate successful businesses, up the regulations until they stagger and fail, then blame the "free market" for the failure, therefore justifying the government sponsored programs that would otherwise not be able to compete with the market businesses.

It has not been used for centuries. Centuries ago economies did not work the way things do now. Since "centuries ago" We have invented airplanes, increased the available amount of land in the world, and exploded in population. This non-regulation bitching has been going on since the 1880's when communism, and anarchism were more popular.
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Dude, I thought you were a spambot for like a week. You posted like a spambot. You failed the Turing test.

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BobRobertson

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #10 on: June 12, 2009, 10:48:28 PM »

It has not been used for centuries. Centuries ago economies did not work the way things do now. Since "centuries ago" We have invented airplanes, increased the available amount of land in the world, and exploded in population. This non-regulation bitching has been going on since the 1880's when communism, and anarchism were more popular.

I can recommend Tom DiLorenzo's book, _Hamilton's Curse_, for a view of the kind of economics that Hamilton was pushing as treasury secretary to Washington.

It is, in fact and deed, exactly the same issue of government regulation of business in order to justify the government regulation of business.

The British had used it for a century or two before, trying to lock in trade to their colonies and thus enrich the coffers of the well connected at Court.

Economics works exactly the same way now that it has always worked. There are new names, but the methods are the same and have the same results. That's why Jefferson, Jackson and Co. were warning everyone about the dangers of fiat currency and inflation, and those same warnings are just as valid for computer-based credit card account balances as it was for clipped coins and tally sticks.

Centuries. Since Jefferson and Co. were looking to the classics, and the same thing was going on in Rome, I should have said it's been going on for MILLENNIA.
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"I regret that I am now to die in the belief that the useless sacrifice of themselves by the generation of 1776 to acquire self-government and happiness to their country is to be thrown away by the unwise and unworthy passions of their sons, and that my only consolation is to be that I live not to weep over it."
-- Thomas Jefferson, April 26th 1820

sillyperson

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2009, 07:58:53 AM »

Yep. MILLENNIA.


Those of us watching the fundamentals are well aware that the biggest wealth transfer in history is going to happen ... soon.

Exactly when can't be predicted, but it's coming. It's like the fact that everybody dies -- well, sure, but that means something much more immediate to a mordantly obese smoker with high blood pressure who takes up whiskey drinking than it does to a 20-year-old nonsmoker who spends all his time in the gym.

Gold & silver, baby. And copper-jacketed lead.

Diogenes The Cynic

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Re: "Anatomy of a Collapse"
« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2009, 10:57:23 PM »

Then I am wrong, and I stand corrected.
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Dude, I thought you were a spambot for like a week. You posted like a spambot. You failed the Turing test.

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